“SWE will be replaced by AI in 2-3 years” - Dario Amodei.
That’s not what Dario means, read on…
I recently watched a video where Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, offered a refreshingly measured perspective on AI’s impact on software engineering; one that contrasts sharply with typical hype and headlines.
When asked about the timeline for full SWE automation, Amodei believes we’ll reach it in 1-2 years.
By “full SWE automation,” he means:
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Environment setup: Compiling code and setting up clusters or environments
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Testing & Documentation: Testing features and writing memos or design documents
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High-Level Strategy: Understanding the context of a problem and setting technical direction
However, he explains that the problem should be viewed as a spectrum of benchmarks:
90% of code written by AI: This has already occurred at Anthropic and other organizations. However, Amodei calls this a “weak criterion” because it doesn’t mean you need 90% fewer engineers; it simply means the model assists with syntax.
100% of code written by AI: This represents a significant leap in productivity but still only covers code generation itself
90% of end-to-end SWE tasks: The model handles the vast majority of the workflow
100% of today’s SWE tasks: The model can perform every task currently required of a software engineer, including setting technical direction and understanding the context of the problem
He notes that even when 100% of today’s SWE tasks are automated, engineers likely won’t disappear immediately, instead, they may transition into oversight and management roles responsible to oversee of these AI systems.
Timeline: Amodei has a “hunch” (50/50 probability) that we’ll reach full end-to-end SWE automation within one to three years. He considers it a “super safe bet” (95-99% certainty) that this will happen within ten years.